Boston College (-8) at Connecticut
Boston College has major issues across their offensive line, leading to no running game and equal struggles in the passing attack. They sit at 2-5 SU and ATS, but do we really need to overthink this? It's a Power 5 school against UConn with a less than 10 point spread. It's arguably the Eagles' last chance to win this season, so if they fail to do so, at least we know we can target against them weekly moving forward. UConn has played three Power 5 schools to date, and lost by a combined 148-24. BC isn't remotely in the tier of Michigan, Syracuse or pre-injury North Carolina State, but the duo of QB Phil Jurkovec and WR Zay Flowers will still score at will.
Georgia (-22.5) vs. Florida (Jacksonville)
When struggling, why not back the Bulldogs, who are 6-1 ATS? I absolutely loathe publishing this Thursday when I actually bet it Sunday night at it's opening of -14.5, and taking a line that's moved that much seems blasphemous. Crazy things have happened in this rivalry, but I just don't see how Florida can score. They aren't going to find consistent running lanes, and if they take shots downfield, it may hit twice. Georgia will do what they do, dominate physically, make timely passing plays and score 30+ while giving up 14 or less. It'll ultimately be worth a 3+ score victory.
Illinois (-7.5) at Nebraska
That's a header I didn't expect to type whether it was when the season started or when I sat down to write this week. I even gave some thought to Nebraska as a home dog to start with. But I can't get there. Nebraska has beaten Indiana, Rutgers and North Dakota. They rank 115th against the run, allowing 190.4 ypg and 4.9 ypc. Illinois is still the top-scoring defense nationally, allowing just 8.9 ppg, with only one opponent topping 14 points against them. Chase Brown should have his way on the ground en route to a two-score victory.
Coastal Carolina (+2.5) at Marshall
Coastal is coming out of a bye, giving them two weeks to stew on their shocking home loss to Old Dominion. But they also don't have a marquee win and maybe their prior success has me with too high of expectations. On the other hand, Marshall just beat their first FBS team since September 10 when they shocked Notre Dame. Their defense is very impressive, but the offense isn't. As such, I'm going to back Chanticleer QB Grayson McCall to go on the road and lead a game-winning drive. Getting points makes me feel a little safer to boot.
North Carolina (-3) vs. Pittsburgh
I won't sit here and suggest North Carolina's defense has improved. It hasn't, and that makes taking them as favorites a tad scary. There's absolutely a scenario where Pittsburgh hands the ball off to Israel Abanikanda and the Heels' offense doesn't get enough opportunities. But I know UNC will key on him and force Kedon Slovis to beat them, and/or match points, something he hasn't proven capable of doing. Pitt is on the road for the second straight week while UNC is coming off a bye as well. I expect Drake Maye to put up points at will as he's done all season.
コメント