SLATE OVERVIEW
CLE (-5) @ MIA O/U: 209
GSW (-4) @ IND O/U: 213.5
TOR (-4.5) vs. SAC O/U: 220.5
BOS (-1) vs. MIL O/U: 217.5
ATL (-11) vs. HOU O/U: 226.5
PHI (-2.5) @ MEM O/U: 210.5
DAL (-3.5) vs. CHA O/U: 219.5
DEN (-4) vs. WAS O/U: 215.5
PHO (-3.5) @ LAC O/U: 212.5
There aren't many spots to wait on, so it's safer to build your lineups early tonight. Aside from keeping an eye on a couple teams (Charlotte, Memphis) and looking for any late scratches, the current status for the slate is fairly static.
INJURIES
MIA Jimmy Butler (back) - OUT
MIA Bam Adebayo (thumb) - OUT
Butler remains out, and we'll soon stop mentioning Adebayo entirely due to his extended absence. Dewayne Dedmon ($5,700) will continue to start for Bam, while Tyler Herro ($6,400) will continue to produce. Duncan Robinson ($4,700) put up an impressive 33 FP in his last outing, so he could also merit some consideration at a low salary.
SAC Richaun Holmes (eye) - OUT
Although Alex Len ($4,100) is starting, I still like Marvin Bagley ($4,300) as a dark horse despite a poor shooting performance in his last contest. We'll mention one more value option at the spot a bit later.
TOR OG Anunoby (hip) - OUT
TOR Precious Achiuwa (COVID -19 Protocols) - OUT
TOR Khem Birch (knee) - OUT
The absence of the big men will continue to help Pascal Siakam ($7,800) and Chris Boucher ($5,000). Gary Trent ($6,000) has excelled during Anunoby's absence.
BOS Jaylen Brown PROBABLE
This is big news for Boston, although the team will likely put Brown on a minutes restriction. He's a couple of games away from a full-throated endorsement.
HOU Kevin Porter (thigh) - OUT
HOU Jalen Green (hamstring) - OUT
This spot continues to be a bit of a dart throw, but Eric Gordon ($5,300) is still the most reliable pivot, followed closely by Garrison Mathews ($4,800) and Armoni Brooks ($4,900).
MEM Jaren Jackson (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
The team has worked Triple-J to the bone over the past few weeks, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him out tonight. A pivot to Xavier Tillman ($4,500) is probably the soundest move, although Kyle Anderson ($5,700) had an excellent game in his return and could see a bump in usage as well.
CHA LaMelo Ball (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
CHA P.J. Washington (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
CHA Mason Plumlee (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
CHA Ish Smith (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
CHA Jaden McDaniels (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
It's unclear why some players are now off this report, and Ball is still in there. I would wait until the starting lineup locks and pivot from there. Several Hornets could be useful against Dallas, who will be without their All-Star.
DAL Luka Doncic (ankle) - OUT
Doncic may be out for at least a couple of games. A Doncic absence is usually good news for Jalen Brunson ($6,300).
WAS Kyle Kuzma (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
No one distinguished themselves in Kuzma's first absence, so there isn't a pivot worth mentioning here.
PHO Devin Booker (hamstring) - OUT
PHO Deandre Ayton (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
PHO Frank Kaminsky (knee) - OUT
If Ayton is out, the door is wide open for JaVale McGee ($5,200) with Kaminsky also sidelined. Jae Crowder ($5,100) has also helped out inside and is on an excellent run.
LAC Paul George (elbow) - DOUBTFUL
George is likely to be out again, leaving Luke Kennard ($5,200) to start. All of the Clippers' starters will continue to see increased usage.
ELITE PLAYERS
Nikola Jokic ($11,400) once again stands head and shoulders over the group as he continues to put up monster numbers. The Wizards are exploitable in the paint, so there's probably no better spend-up option despite his very high salary. I also expect good things from Stephen Curry($10,300) against the Pacers. A sneaky and potentially low-rostered elite is Jayson Tatum($9,600). He may be a bit less popular with the return of Jaylen Brown, but even with a minute restriction the Bucks will have to account for him. Tatum could get some breathing room as a result. Trae Young ($9,900) will probably put up a show for the home crowd against Houston, so I also like him at point guard along with Curry.
Also consider: Domantas Sabonis, IND ($8,800) vs. GSW, Christian Wood, HOU ($8,400) @ ATL
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
Bradley Beal, WAS ($8,300) @ DEN
Assuming Beal can weather the altitude, I like his chances against Denver at one of his lowest salaries to date. Without Kuzma's contribution, Beal will be required to create some off-the-ball production to give the Wizards a fighting chance, especially with the paint potentially shut down by Jokic.
Fred VanVleet, TOR ($8,300) vs. SAC
I like a slew of Raptors tonight against the Kings. Unfortunately, Pascal Siakam ($7,800) andScottie Barnes ($8,000) are also pretty expensive, so stacking them is less likely. VanVleet's recent run of production makes him stand out, however, He has exceeded 40 FP in three of his last four games. I am also fine with Siakam and Barnes, who could both benefit from an assist-to-point correlation.
Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,500) @ BOS
This salary is a bit too low for Middleton, who can make magic in almost any scenario. Even though Jaylen is back, I doubt that there will be much improvement on defense from the Celtics, who are in the middle of the pack in their own end. I found Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500) to be a bit too expensive in what could be a slower-paced affair, but Middleton's number is much more reasonable.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($7,300) vs. GSW
Recent so-so games, at least by Brogdon's standards, have sent his salary sliding, but the upside is just too good for this salary. While Andrew Wiggins might be able to slow Brogdon down, the guard will be able to find seams in the Warriors' defense. We need 35 FP or more for Brogdon to pay off, but it's certainly doable in a fast-paced contest.
Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,300) @ MEM
If Jaren Jackson doesn't suit up, I really like Harris in this spot. Joel Embiid and Steven Adams will be battling it out in the paint, which should give Harris more opportunities if the Grizzlies end up short-handed.
Also consider: Kyle Lowry, MIA ($5,900) @ CLE, John Collins, ATL ($7,600) vs. HOU
VALUE PLAYS
Dillon Brooks, MEM ($6,100) vs. PHI
I understand not wanting to look at Brooks against the Sixers, but I believe he will create some opportunities of his own in the backcourt and keep the defense guessing. His numbers have jumped around a bit recently, so he's more of a tournament play, in the hopes his upside will appear in this matchup.
Aaron Gordon, DEN ($6,100) vs. WAS
This looks like an excellent spot for Gordon, given the absence of Kuzma. Gordon has consistently matched or exceeded value at this salary point over the past couple of weeks, and his usage continues to ramp up in a starting role. This salary may be too good to pass up, although Will Barton ($6,000) could also benefit in this spot.
Mikal Bridges, PHO ($5,000) @ LAC
A whole host of players have stepped up with Ayton and Booker out, and Bridges has been helping out as a scorer and rebounder. While there are some potentially more productive guys on the roster, Bridges only needs 25 FP to beat 5x value in this spot, and he's bound to find some extra opportunities against the Clippers, who will be without Paul George's services.
Alperen Sengun, HOU ($4,800) @ ATL
If the Hawks turn this game into a blowout, Sengun could become very valuable, but he has merit either way. He displayed excellent FP-per-minute production with 40 FP on Saturday, so the team will not fear calling his number. He also has PF and C eligibility on FanDuel, which is an added bonus.
Also consider: Harrison Barnes, SAC ($5,800) @ TOR, De'Anthony Melton, MEM ($5,600) vs. PHI, Chimezie Metu, SAC ($4,200) @ TOR
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