Get ready for a wild 10-game slate on Fanduel for Monday! We have lots of injuries and late-swap opportunities to cover.
SLATE OVERVIEW
PHI (-5.5) vs. CHA O/U: 218.5
DET (-4.5) vs. OKC O/U: 206.5
IND (-5.5) vs. WAS O/U: 212.5
MIA (-4.5) vs. MEM O/U: 215.5
CHI (-4.5) vs. DEN O/U: 215.5
MIL (-8) vs. CLE O/U: 213.5
MIN (-1) vs. ATL O/U: 219.5
PHO (-7.5) vs. SAS O/U: 218.5
GSW (-14,5) vs. ORL O/U: 215.5
LAC (-1) @ POR O/U: 215.5
The biggest news on the slate involves the Hornets, who now have a slew of players in the COVID-19 protocol. Right off the bat, I will name Ish Smith ($4,500) as the most popular player on this slate, and several other Hornets will carry immense value. We will check through all of those endorsements in the Injuries section. There are also several different moving parts on this 10-game slate, but interestingly enough, the elites will not bring the kind of value you'd usually expect. It's imperative to keep your ear to the ground as lock approaches. Our best late swap options fall with the ATL/MIN matchup and Portland.
INJURIES
OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (concussion) - OUT
A pivot to the starters is advisable, but expect Ty Jerome ($4,100) to start and log significant minutes. Josh Giddey ($6,200) is not on the injury report, so expect him to take over the reins of this offense against Detroit.
PHI Tobias Harris (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
Harris's status represents another big piece of the value puzzle. You'll want to spend up on Joel Embiid ($10,400) more often if Harris sits. Georges Niang ($4,800) will start if Harris is out.
HORNETS INJURY SCENARIO
LaMelo Ball (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Terry Rozier (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Jalen McDaniels (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Mason Plumlee (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
As previously stated, Ish Smith will be the biggest chalk play on the slate. Kelly Oubre ($5,800) and Cody Martin ($5,000) are my next-favorite players in this spot, with P.J. Washington ($6,000) and a more expensive Miles Bridges ($8,400) not too far behind. Gordon Hayward ($7,200) is also viable, but his ability to pop above his usual floor has been limited this season. Going with the public on Smith is fine, and you can probably allow one or two more Hornets into most of your lineups, especially if you plan on late-swapping elites.
WAS Spencer Dinwiddie (possible rest)
Dinwiddie doesn't usually play on back-to-backs. If he is out, I like the ex-Laker duo of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,100) and Kyle Kuzma ($6,300) to control a lot of the action.
IND T.J. McConnell (wrist) - OUT
IND Justin Holiday (COVID-19 Protocols)
Pivot to the starters, as there's no real value in Indiana's rotation, especially considering the overall health of the slate.
MIA Jimmy Butler (tailbone) - QUESTIONABLE
Butler is trending toward playing and may take the floor. Tyler Herro ($7,400) will continue to see additional floor time if Butler sits.
MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
Giannis has missed the past two games but could return tonight. As I've stated in previous articles, it's better to just ride Khris Middleton ($7,500) and Jrue Holiday ($7,800) rather than plug in risky variance plays. Bobby Portis ($6,800) is also viable in this spot.
MIN Karl-Anthony Towns (tailbone) - QUESTIONABLE
MIN D'Angelo Russell (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Malik Beasley ($4,500) makes for a reasonable value pivot if Russell can't go. Naz Reid ($5,000)will likely step in if Towns is out. Instead of targeting Reid, I will give a full-throated endorsement to Clint Capela ($8,200) on the other side of this matchup if KAT is out.
SAS Devin Vassell (thigh) - QUESTIONABLE
Lonnie Walker ($4,300) was the man to gain the most in the last game, but the appropriate pivot has shifted on a nightly basis.
PHO Devin Booker (hamstring) - OUT
Chris Paul ($8,400) and the Suns got the weekend off to rest, so expect Paul to be at his best and perform as the top pivot for Booker in this spot.
POR Damian Lillard (abdomen) - OUT
POR Anfernee Simons (ankle) - OUT
POR Nassir Little (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Dennis Smith's ($5,000) salary has crept up, but he is still usable as Lillard's pivot. CJ McCollum($8,100) is banged up but will play and is a costly pivot.
ELITE PLAYERS
Tonight is not a night to spend up on big men, as several options on the docket can generate good results and save cash. The lone exception might be Joel Embiid ($10,400), who gets additional value if Tobias Harris is out. Stephen Curry ($10,700) can get some exposure, but there is a significant blowout risk against Orlando, and I think we can go lower at this position as well. We have already discussed the scenario for Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000). If he is active and you slotted a lot of deep value, he is a suitable anchor for some of your lineups.
Finally, Trae Young ($9,800) and Paul George ($9,300) are on the border of an endorsement, but I've soured a bit on spending up for George, as he's failed to reach 5x value consistently. Even at this depressed salary, I will probably lower my exposure significantly. It's Young's cost that sends me looking elsewhere, and he still may be dealing with his recent quad injury.
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
I can't overstate the importance of the Charlotte situation, so much so that it requires a second mention as we delve into chalk plays. Avoiding the Hornets at all costs would be an extreme (and probably unprofitable) contrarian play, as it's your best opportunity to get higher core guys.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($7,700) vs. WAS
To understand why we want him at this appealing salary, one only needs to look at Brogdon's last game. He went off for 55 FP and flirted with a triple-double in the previous meeting with the Wizards, and his recent numbers are as solid as ever.
DeMar DeRozan, CHI ($8,500) vs. DEN
DeRozan kept coming up as I added more Charlotte value. He posted a very nice 44-FP effort against the Nuggets in their sole meeting despite a 16 percent prop from his average field-goal percentage. If he can connect on a few more shots, he could go well over that first number. While we are on Chicago, I'm also keen to get Lonzo Ball ($6,600) involved against forgiving Denver backcourt.
Cade Cunningham, DET ($6,800) vs. OKC
Many feel that Cunningham's salary is a great value relative to his tremendous upside, but in my opinion, it is mainly matchup-dependent. This home game against the lowly Thunder (who will play without SGA) is the exact kind of spot where the Pistons will showcase their top pick in the draft. Cunningham's only problem is the lack of a dependable floor. You are looking for 100 percent upside with this selection.
Myles Turner, IND ($6,700) vs. WAS
I left Domantas Sabonis out because Turner has recently been more consistent in matching salary value, especially over his past two games. It's usually a good idea to pit a center against the Wizards, and Turner's size is a significant mismatch for their frontcourt. I'm going the cheaper route here over Sabonis, and although his eligibility is limited, there are several big men with dual tags if we want to roster two centers. I see a path to Turner if Towns ends up playing because Capela would be less valuable and is one of the only true centers I would consider in this range.
Also consider: Anthony Edwards, MIN ($8,300), Wendell Carter, ORL ($6,500)
VALUE PLAYS
Dare I mention it a third time? Charlotte. Also, find the best values in the injury section. Thanks to the immense value there, we don't have much to add here.
Kevin Huerter, ATL ($4,600) @ MIN
A couple of mediocre games sent Huerter's salary plummeting, but he pulled off an excellent 33 FDFP game against a short-handed Charlotte team and didn't get much of a salary increase. He only needs about 22 FP to pay off, a feat that he's achieved in five of his last 10 games.
Also consider: Tyrese Maxey, PHI ($6,300)
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